Morgan Rogers' Scoring Streak Propels Aston Villa's Unlikely Championship Bid

A mere two months prior when the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him over not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for Villa's broader struggles.

In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. When the in-form star curled home his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, now sit just three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Hopefuls?

This is a rather hard question to address. History, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the victories have piled up.

According to the data, on just two occasions has the team registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club which has strung together 10 in a row, they look strangely fragile – yet at the moment the margins are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The current approach seems to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping their talisman to rescue them with two crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.

The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more efforts and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club will encounter in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
• The attacking talent might become the force he resembled in Germany.
• The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential player for the national team.

This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. When the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.