A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
